Market analysis
How an extra $34 billion in cash changed Treasury’s borrowing estimate
Reconcile the US Treasury’s November borrowing revision with its opening cash balance, then identify the auction details that matter for gold analysis.
Gold Intelligence.
Understand who holds gold, how demand is measured and where the data stops. Original analysis and research primers by Gabriel Nicolaev — CyGuru.
THE DAILY COLLECTION
Open the collection →3 November 2026
10 original articles · Separate from the Daily Gold Brief
Market analysis
3 ARTICLES
Market analysis
Factories reported stronger orders and easing price pressure. What did buyers actually say?
Read October’s US manufacturing survey through the share of firms reporting changes. Compare orders, input costs and the evidence needed to link them to gold.
Market analysis
148,388 gold contracts traded. How many positions stayed open?
Work through a dated CME metals bulletin to see why turnover, outstanding gold contracts and the number of investors answer different questions.
Official sector & flows
2 ARTICLES
Official sector & flows
Did the central bank sell gold or pledge it for cash?
Two central banks can report fewer available gold ounces for different reasons. Follow a sale, a cash swap and a gold loan through their contractual obligations.
Official sector & flows
Where did a GLD shareholder’s fraction of an ounce go?
Trace GLD’s expense sales through the June 2026 filing and see how a small change in ounces per share affects a holder even when the gold price is steady.
Practical education
3 ARTICLES
Practical education
Gold moved fifty cents. How many dollars changed hands in your contract?
Translate a fifty-cent gold move into ticks and dollars across three COMEX contracts, then reconcile an order ticket against a fill.
Practical education
A negative gold spread can rise while both contracts fall
Use two gold futures months to track a signed spread, reconcile each leg and compare a deferred premium with a simple carrying-cost estimate.
Practical education
Who bears the loss while a gold bar is in transit?
Read two mint contracts, trace responsibility from dispatch to receipt and identify what a Dubai bullion buyer should obtain in writing.
Research methods
2 ARTICLES
Research methods
The gold log ends while three signals are still open
A ten-signal example shows how to retain incomplete follow-up, distinguish a stop from a data cutoff and choose a denominator for a gold target study.
Research methods
A gold backtest can see tomorrow even with the rows in date order
Use decision, label and availability times to keep future gold returns out of training. A worked 15-minute timeline shows precisely which rows must wait.
Latest selected case study
Beyond the Third Target: 66 Breakout Captures Gold’s Upside Expansion
Gabriel Nicolaev reviews the 2 November 66 Breakout BUY observation on XAU/USD, with price above TP3, defined risk and the original timestamped capture.
Read the Research Lab case →Five foundations of gold intelligence
Evergreen primers for understanding the sources behind the daily analysis.
Central Banks & Gold Reserves
Read reserve disclosures without confusing purchases, valuation changes and publication delays.
Source reference: World Gold Council / IMF statisticsRead the research primer →Gold ETF Flows & Investor Demand
Distinguish metal holdings, money flows and changes in assets under management.
Source reference: World Gold Council ETF datasetsRead the research primer →Futures Positioning, Volume & Open Interest
Separate activity, outstanding contracts and trader positioning before interpreting a crowded trade.
Source reference: CFTC reports / CME market dataRead the research primer →Physical Gold: Demand, Mining & Recycling
Understand the difference between physical demand categories and the price of a quoted ounce.
Source reference: World Gold Council supply and demandRead the research primer →Dubai Gold Market: A Practical Research Lens
Compare local gold quotations, currency conversion and product costs with a consistent method.
Source reference: Dubai Gold & Jewellery GroupRead the research primer →Research library, not a live statistics feed
Each primer identifies a source and the questions needed to interpret it. Numeric datasets are not automatically imported here. Current values, reporting periods and revisions must be checked with the publisher.