Gold mines produced more. Where did the extra supply go?

Rebuild the change in tonnes

The World Gold Council and Metals Focus put global second-quarter mine production at 965.6 tonnes, up 17.9 tonnes from the same quarter in 2025. Recycled gold moved the other way, falling 20.6 tonnes to 326.1. On those two figures alone, supply would have shrunk by 2.7 tonnes.

Net producer hedging completes the calculation. Its contribution was negative in both quarters, but changed from minus 25.8 tonnes to minus 22.8. That adds 3.0 tonnes to the year-on-year comparison. The three changes together give plus 0.3 tonnes, matching the movement from 1,268.6 to 1,268.9 in the July report. A smaller negative entry can raise the total even while producers continue to reduce outstanding hedges.

Source notes: [1] World Gold Council and Metals Focus — Q2 2026 gold supply

Follow one bracelet through three transactions

Imagine a bracelet containing ten grams of fine gold. Its owner sells it for cash to a buyer who sends it for refining. That can return ten grams of existing metal to the market. If the owner instead trades it toward a new bracelet, the World Gold Council excludes the exchanged metal from its recycling measure. The shop could handle the same weight across the counter in both cases.

Consider a third route. A manufacturer trims metal while making a bracelet and sends the offcuts for refining. That material never reached the consumer. Counting each return as fresh supply would inflate the market total every time the workshop repeated the process. LBMA’s country-of-origin reporting asks refiners a different question about the material they receive, so their recycled input can legitimately include flows that a supply balance excludes.

Source notes: [1] World Gold Council and Metals Focus — Q2 2026 gold supply · [2] LBMA — comparison of gold and silver recycling definitions

How I would test a claim about local supply

If a Dubai dealer tells me that more customers brought in old jewellery this week, I would ask for two figures on the same basis as the comparison week. How many fine grams went to outright sale, and how many were credited against new jewellery? I would also ask when the metal went to the refiner. A shop can take in old pieces on Friday and dispatch an accumulated parcel the next week. Those are two different observation dates.

That distinction gives the quarterly estimate a practical use. When a new supply table appears, first calculate which component contributed the most tonnes to the change. Then check whether the local observation even falls inside its definition and reporting period. The worked figures here cover the quarter ended 30 June. They cannot tell us the volume customers sold this morning or how much any particular Dubai shop can buy back today.