“Understand the forces behind gold.
Let discipline guide every decision.”
A deeper reading of gold: markets, the holders of metal, practical decisions and the quality of the evidence.
By Gabriel Nicolaev — CyGuru. This collection is separate from the Daily Gold Brief. Publication dates refer to Dubai; each article identifies its own source periods.
October payroll gains were concentrated in three major industries. Learn why contribution, hiring breadth and persistence answer different questions for gold analysis.
Before next week’s Treasury auctions, distinguish bidding channels from investor nationality. Why the distinction matters when interpreting yields and gold.
The Fed’s 6 November consumer-credit release shows faster September revolving balances. Separate annualized debt growth, spending and household stress in gold analysis.
October gold ETF flows reveal regional disagreement. A practical breadth test separates aggregate demand, concentration and investor identity.
Reconcile reported central-bank gold purchases with estimated demand. Learn why monthly, quarterly and year-to-date totals cannot be added indiscriminately.
Understand the terminal payoff of a same-strike gold call and short put, including premium arithmetic, execution differences and the limits of a parity comparison.
Separate gold exchange circuit breakers, market status and executable liquidity. Build a pause-and-reopening record without assuming a guaranteed exit price.
An original worked example shows how physical gold and futures can move differently, leaving basis and local-premium exposure despite matching metal quantities.
Audit a gold probability forecast with a clearly defined event, a worked Brier-score example and a calibration check. No CY66 performance claim is inferred.
A live gold research dashboard creates many opportunities to select a flattering endpoint. Learn how a declared stopping rule changes the evidence claim.
