Market analysis
A CPI component rose sharply. How much did it move the total?
Separate a CPI component’s price change, percentage-point effect and share of inflation before interpreting the release for gold.
Gold Intelligence — 10 November 2026
A deeper reading of gold: markets, the holders of metal, practical decisions and the quality of the evidence.
By Gabriel Nicolaev — CyGuru. This collection is separate from the Daily Gold Brief. Publication dates refer to Dubai; each article identifies its own source periods.
Market analysis
3 ARTICLES
Market analysis
A futures-implied Fed probability begins with a monthly average
Understand why the FedWatch probability differs from a monthly effective-rate expectation and how assumptions affect the message gold analysts read.
Market analysis
Oil can reach core inflation. New Fed research changes the question for gold.
A 9 November Federal Reserve research note examines stronger oil pass-through and inflation persistence. Here is how to test its relevance to gold without overclaiming.
Official sector & flows
2 ARTICLES
Official sector & flows
A gold warrant changed status. Did a bar leave the warehouse?
Separate warrant transfers, collateral pledges and physical withdrawals before interpreting COMEX warehouse changes as a gold shortage.
Official sector & flows
The assay is precise. Was the gold sample representative?
Understand why a precise laboratory result cannot repair poor sampling, and how surface tests differ from representative gold fineness analysis.
Practical education
3 ARTICLES
Practical education
Gold settlement versus last trade: which price belongs in your journal?
Learn why a gold futures settlement can differ from the last trade, how to label both prices, and which comparison belongs in a trading journal.
Practical education
A gold EFP transfers exposure, not necessarily a truckload of bars
Understand the two legs of a gold exchange for physical, why exposure can move without immediate bar transport, and what a responsible EFP audit records.
Practical education
Exercising a gold option early can surrender remaining time value
Learn how early exercise differs from selling a gold option, why remaining time value matters, and how to compare executable alternatives without assuming profits.
Research methods
2 ARTICLES
Research methods
A gold target has three decimals. Can the chosen contract trade there?
Audit how raw gold signal levels become valid contract prices, and why a rounding rule can change nominal target classification.
Research methods
The gold evidence file changed. Can another researcher reconstruct the earlier verdict?
Design reproducible gold research snapshots with explicit data versions, canonicalization, correction history and source-authentication limits.