“Understand the forces behind gold.
Let discipline guide every decision.”
A deeper reading of gold: markets, the holders of metal, practical decisions and the quality of the evidence.
By Gabriel Nicolaev — CyGuru. This collection is separate from the Daily Gold Brief. Publication dates refer to Dubai; each article identifies its own source periods.
Why some October CPI annual changes will be unavailable, how seasonal estimation differs from observed data, and what gold analysts can still test.
October payroll and household employment gains measure different things. Read the labour-force denominator before drawing a gold-market conclusion.
New Fed research separates dealer inventory from client financing. Examine Treasury settlement without treating an auction allocation as a permanent position.
Separate the return gap from its variability when auditing a gold fund. A worked example shows why low tracking error does not mean zero cost or better returns.
A rising gold share need not mean a matching increase in central-bank purchases. Decompose valuation, quantities and other reserves before interpreting allocation.
An original options worksheet separates direction, elapsed time and implied volatility, showing why a bullish gold view can still produce a falling call premium.
LBMA’s 2026 calendar maps 9 November spot trades to 12 November. Learn why trading, benchmark publication and metal settlement use different calendars.
Learn how modifying a FIFO gold futures order can reset time priority, why pending changes need acknowledgements, and how to audit the resulting execution record.
Matching ATR and EMA lengths is only the start of replication. Audit the input history, smoothing convention and first divergent calculation before comparing signals.
A baseline-versus-filtered audit needs the rejected signals as well as the retained ones. Measure coverage, target retention and unresolved evidence together.
